Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
